Tuesday, July 31, 2007

GETTING NO LOVE ON THIS BLOG, SO WE'LL SETTLE FOR HATE

Time to weigh in on Michael Vick issue. Forego believes that dear friend "Country" who is the single biggest dog lover in the world gives permission, consdering he gave Forego vintage book on game-cockery for Forego's 40th.

NAACP has also warned against rush to judgment, so there.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Ag.ZfDuOcxsdXUzk4XdqWnX.uLYF?slug=ap-vick-naacp&prov=ap&type=lgns

First of all, as Forego recalls, in the United States Of America a person accused of a crime is presumed innocent until proven guilty by a jury of peers. Forego could be mistaken about this but as a trade association and "corporate-person" without anti-trust exemption, neither the NFL nor the Atlanta Falcons may do anything to prevent Mr. Vick from earning a living at his chosen work wihtut cause unless he is found guilty or pleads guilty, and they especially may not do so in concert. Forego is not sure if the practice of professional dog-fighting is even a Federal offense. Without any knowledge we are presuming it is illegal in the states of Georgia and West Virginia, though. We are also not sure if either the NFL or Atlanta Falcons football club may prevent Mr. Vick from pursuing his main trade in another state, should he be found guilty and after having served his sentence.

Second of all, we understand this story is news, but why does it get more prominence than recent Bush administration executive orders granted the executive dictatorial powers and the right to full asset-seizure of anyone on U.S. soil for any reason without due process?

Third of all, what's really the big deal? Here are some truths about dog-fighting. The breeding, owning, training and entry into matches of professional fighting dogs is not what everyone reflexively thinks it is. These are not street fights to the death. These dogs are not penned up in veal cages when not fighting. The training process is very specfic and most trainers use pretty standard techniques. The idea is to build the dog's hind-quarter strength as a puppy by tying a heavy object to the tail and having the dog walk ever-increasing distances dragging the object. As the puppy develops, the trainer will begin the fighting preparation practice. The first job is to discover whether the dog is an aggressor or a defender. This is done by donning soft gloves and play-fighting with the dog. The dog's stylistic response will show which type of fighter he or she is.

As the puppy matures, he or she will have safe sparring matches with muzzles and wrapped and padded paws against dogs of the opposite and same styles. Whatever weakness in the dog's fight the trainer observes, that trainer will attempt to correct those flaws by having the dog spar with only the type of dogs whose styles exploit those flaws, again with muzzles and padded paws.

The owners of these dogs have no interest in underfeeding or mistreating the dogs. The dogs are their livelihood. A top-class male can be worth $50,000 or more and a top-class bitch can yield hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars over th e course of a fighting and breeding career. An aside, for reasons Forego is not clear on, breeders like to delay breeding after one or two cycles of estrus following the bitch's fighting career or if she isn't trained to fight, the reach of sexual maturity.

The fighting dog's career is managed much like a boxer's. They participate in short fights in early career, progressing to longer bouts with maturation. The single worst thing an owner/trainer can do financially and with regard for the dog's health is accept "street challenges" from another owner who has lower-level dogs. A well-trained fighting dog would be a heavy favorite to win that fight, but could easily get hurt in the process. In other words, "ego" has no place in that world.

Forego understands that during the course of many professional dog-fights, dogs do indeed die or receive serious injuries. Forego does not know what becomes of trained dogs who are injured and have neither breeding value nor fighting value, nor does Forego know if dog's deemed to have no earning potential are indeed killed. If so, if Forego were a judge in the Vick case, and Vick were to be found guilty, Forego would consider that very much an augmenting factor in deciding Vick's sentence.

Fourth of all, Forego has never witnessed nor bet on nor even seen a video of a professional or amateur dogfight.

Fifth of all, these dogs are bred to fight. For sweet baby Jesus's sakes, the young men and women in the U.S. military and least of all those in the National Guard were NOT bred to fight! May we please have some sense of proportionality. If given an ultimate choice of being either a professional fighting dog or serving in the infantry in Iraq or Afghanistan, Forego would choose the former. At least, in the former case, he has a fair chance to survive intact, a clearly defined mission and career-path, and the support and training of those in charge. And $13 million unguaranteed dollars be damned. Please make a case that professional dog fighting is less brutal that professional football. Former NFL player and persistant players' advocate Dave Meggesey, in a critque of Players' Association head Gene Upshaw has said that professional football has taken away its players' right to be middle-aged. The actuarial tables bear this out. An NFL career of average length takes the player from youth to old age to an earlier-than-average death for an American male of equivalent circumstance, without the benefit of many years of retirement. It is a bit hard for Forego to see the (is ontological the right adjective? maybe philosophical or effective would be better) difference between Michael Vick and a top-flight professional fighting dog in terms of treatment by their "masters." Which brings up the non-political point (finally) of this post...

Please look at these links to the NFL careers of QBs Michael Vick and Daunte Culpepper (both high First Round draft picks).

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/5448/career;_ylt=AiPveL1P8FVmECGITIxK.AH.uLYF

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/4659/career;_ylt=AiPveL1P8FVmECGITIxK.AH.uLYF

Now, compare them to the careers of Matt Hasselbeck and Trent Green (both late round draft picks).

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/4416/career;_ylt=AiPveL1P8FVmECGITIxK.AH.uLYF

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/2547/career;_ylt=AiPveL1P8FVmECGITIxK.AH.uLYF

There is something Forego does not know -- and using Hasselbeck and Green as comps -- is not begging the answer Forego wants at all. At their best, Vick and Culpepper were brilliant, absolutely deserving of a high draft pick. Their key stats, passing yards per attempt and rushing yards per carry, put them at the very elite of both QBs and RBs in the same season. Essentially, in drafting these two players, Atlanta and Minnesota were getting excellence -- no, superiority -- at two positions for the cost of one pick: Quarterback and Tailback if you will. In Vick's case, his running also allowed some relief for the brilliant, yet small and injury-prone, running back Warrick Dunn.

What stands out about both Vick and Culpepper's careers (aside from scandal and we've discussed that too much already with regard to Vick), is just how much injury they endured. It is not hard to draw the conclusion that the injuries were related to having to be both a passer and a runner.

Hasselbeck and Green, however, as traditional pocket-passers have been quite durable and have always been among league leaders in passing yards/attempt.

The question, therefore, for an NFL team with a high #1 draft pick, is it better to take a player like Vick with that high pick knowing the team will get instant improvement versus taking a top prospect at a different position and trying to "invent" a Hasselbeck or Green with a later round pick, knowing that this stratety would be for rebuilding, not for instant results?

Forego does not know the answer. He does not have the time or inclination to study the question. But somebody out there must know.

Good luck from Forego, a poor skin-head without a dollar.

Sunday, July 22, 2007

BARRY BONDS, SERGIO "EL LABIO" GARCIA, WINKY WRIGHT

Forego's not sure exactly what Bonds did that was so terrible. He's cranky to be sure, but my god man, in addition to inherting a prodigious baseball talent from his father, Bobby, Barry also inhertited a tendency towards chemical depression. What a tragedy that Bobby Bonds chose to self-medicate himself to an early grave via the bottle.



For whom exactly is Barry Bonds supposed to be a role model? Who could ever "be like Barry."



In addition to inheriting his father's athletic ability and brooding personality, Barry Bonds was also born into a life of privilege and blessed with an IQ well, well above average. Oh, yeah, he's also the greatest POSITION PLAYER (meant to include fielding and overall productivity, not just home run power) in baseball history. Through 2005, on Mike Gimbel's RPA ratings (tm) which wash out the distortive effects of home park, era in which he player played, etc., (meaning IF Bonds was using steroids in a "steroid era" his rating is adjusted for that), Bonds was just slightly behind Babe Ruth for the #1 spot. Bonds, however, has had 3 outstanding seasons since then and will probably have a few more to come.



Moreover, in 1995, the last season before the so-called "Steroid Era" began, when Barry Bonds was still thin, he was 6 1-2 WINS better than the median starting National League Left-Fielder, Jeff Conine. The next best of these comparisons for that year were peak Mike Piazza versus the median starting National League Catcher, a peak Todd Hundley at 3 WINS.



Forego will listen to an argument that Ruth's amazing pitching makes him hard to catch for #1 and will also listen to the argument that maybe Josh Gibson of the Negro Leagues was actually the greatest because the Negro League standard of play was so much higher than the Majors at the time and it's unlikely that anyone's going to come close to Gibson's HR record.


So, in Barry Bonds, you have a very intelligent man born to wealth and privilege who at worst is the 3rd best baseball player of all-time. How many people fit that overall profile? FDR, DeKlerk, Jacob Bernoulli? Certainly. Felix Mendelsson and Peyton Manning, maybe. Anybody else? Forego's probably missing four or five. Anybody think FDR and DeKlerk were particularly cuddly? Apparently not. Mendelsson probably fails the Bonds analogy anyway in that he wasn't as good a composer as Bonds is a bsseball player. Jacob Bernoulli was an asshole by historical account. Is there anything paricularly role-modelish or loveable about Peyton Manning? Fuck, no.



Barry Bonds is what he is -- the best player Forego has had the privilege to watch play live. And Forego, Jr., could pick way worse role models than Barry Bonds, believe. Dick Cheney? Harry Reid? Joe Lieberman? Bonds'll do.



But for argument's sake -- though it's absurd to consider Barry Bonds in the same light -- let's say Bonds is supposed to be a role-model for African-American children, and somehow failed miserably at a task that was not appropriate for him nor did he ask for. OK, let's have a little peek at two famous athletes who just before the BALCO case became a big deal were in fact considered role models for disadvantaged inner-city African-American youth and were making far, far more in earnings and endorsement deals than Bonds was at the time: VENUS AND SERENA WILLIAMS. Remember them? The numbers #1 and #2 players in the world. America's sweethearts with all their talk about "the Lord" and their huge endorsement deals. Forget that both of them are dumb as a couple of fenceposts and probably couldn't beat Barry Bonds at Scrabble if Bonds played his tiles open and only had access to 1/8 of the letter bag. Jeez, Forego's not fully convinced either Williams sister can actually read. But physically? Neither Williams sister was much smaller than Bonds is and both were much bigger than the Bonds of the 1990s.



But that's just invective and anecdotal stuff. Let's have a little dance, though, shall we? Here's the data link.

http://home17.inet.tele.dk/wta/

Some highlights. In 2003, when the public first became aware of BALCO Venus Williams played 37 matches,with a 31-6 record including the two famous "suspicious" losses to her sister in the Australian Open and Wimbledon, in which she had opened a -140 favorite, and was bet down to +110 underdog amid suspicions that Richard Williams had punted a few million sterling on the "winner". It was not a great year for her, as she did not win any big events and disappeared following the Wimbledon loss. 2004 found her with a 51-14 record, no major wins and a "walkover" injury loss to Chandra Rubin, though, to Ms. V. Williams's credit, she did make it through the year's schedule. It's all downhill from there. In 2003, Serena Williams had perhaps her best year, going 42-3 and "winning" two majors: Australia and Wimbledon. She, too, disappeared following her Wimbledon "victory." 2004 was a little worse for her than 2003 had been. In 2005, she went 22-9 including an injury walkover loss. Nothing good's happened since. That's not exactly true. A normally pro-portioned Venus Williams did win Wimbledon this year, but you all get the point. Senator and Ambassador Mitchell, as you have subpoenaed Mr. Bonds, would it not be a terrible idea to subpoena the Williams sisters as well? Or do they still move too many racquets, sneakers and tennis gear? We'll leave it to Scotland Yard and the Southern Bookmakers' Association of The United Kingdom to deal with their adoring father.

As for yesterday's British Open finale, what can be said that hasn't already been said about Sergio Garcia? This: His new nickname, replacing "El Nino," ought to be "El Labio" (The Lip).

Forego having suffered along offers condolences to the world's tiny cadre of elite boxing handicappers for losses backing Oscar De La Hoya against Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Ronald "Winky" Wright against Bernard Hopkins. Such is life. it's the hardest way to make an easy living.

--Forego, a poor skin-head without a dollar

Thursday, July 12, 2007

PEAK OBAMA?

WE NEED SOME HELP HERE



Forego will get to the point later but first a few questions: (1) voters of any and all stripes but please try to self-identify, if you were voting in the Democratic primary or caucus in your state would you prefer Obama to Clinton, Edwards or Gore? (2) is your state densely populated? (3) does anyone know specifically any good "moderate" Democratic chat-rooms, something offiliated with -- say -- The New Republic, The DLC, etc.? (4) if you knew that Obama had strong ties to big pharma and big insurance would that make a difference? (5) If you lean right and thought that Obama was equally religious to any of the Republicans and was probably somewhere to Giuliani's right on social policy and slightly to his left on the war, has voted with Bush on the big stuff with the liberals on the small stuff what you do?



If you are thinking that this really belongs on the Kelso's Nuts site, think again. FOREGO'S NUTS is not an ideological site. It's about getting the best of it. In that sense, it probably is an idelogical site and an extreme right-wing one! Obama's 2nd financial disclosure of $37mm has shaken the gambling and futures markets. The In-Trade Democratic Nominee sub-market of Tradesports has Hillary Clinton at 43p-in-the-pound in the futures which impounds a +1.33/1 outright price in the discrete market. Obama is 38p-in-the-pound, +1.63/1. The others -- even Gore and Edwards -- are rags.



One must not make too much of this, however. In-Trade is very, very thin. Betfair -- which uses a futures/outright hybrid -- has as closest to market clearing prices: Clinton, +1.12/1; Obama +2.10/1. Betfair is a little deeper than In-Trade as to volume. A bigger place still which uses the hybrid method has Clinton +1.21/1; Obama +2.40/1, with Gore and Edwards far from rags.

All opinions welcome. Real steam preferred.

Good luck from Forego, a poor skin-head without a dollar

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

"Shirts And Skins"

WELCOME TO FOREGO'S NUTS

"I'm not interested in sports" has become too frequent a refrain around Kelso's Nuts. As the mighty Nuts Army aims please all, henceforth all discussion of sports, gambling, and finance will be the province of Kelso's younger twin brother, Forego, leaving Kelso to continue to offer the usual windy crap opinions on current events, culture, international affairs and that sort of stuff. The pole-star of the Nuts Empire is that everything is or should be fungible -- meaning every good, service, or future event can be quantified and priced in turn meaning that there is theoretically some number of grosses of Heinz 57 Ketchup that you would accept in exchange for your right to sleep with the partner of your dreams or that you would trade for your vote for Barack Obama in your local Democratic primary (many grosses, one teaspoon, respectively for Forego) -- there will of course be crossover. An example would be the large bet on Gore to win the presidency that was placed in Europe this spring.

In the main, however, we'll keep the sports/finance/quant stuff in County Forego and the political/cultural in County Kelso.

And so, we bring Kelso's All-Star game musings over to County Forego, and continue to ponder the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

As usual we have a cooling off period with sports and was anyone watching the same MLB All-Star Game Kelso was? Did it not seem like Tony LaRussa was trying his damnedest to lose that game? OK, Peavy throws 5 ground balls (one single, one error) in the first inning and is yanked. Leyland leaves Haren in for two even though he's up in the zone with everything and gives up an early run. Just that one extra inning pitched by Haren ultimately gave Leyland the choice of Putz, K-Rod or Jenks to close plus use Okajima to knock out any lefty hitter LaRussa might have had in his pocket. Speaking of left-handed pitchers, why did LaRussa only carry one -- Wagner? Why did Sanchez and Hardy bat against right-handed pitchers yet Albert fucking Pujols sat on bench? This must be the result of some intra-Cardinal feud between LaRussa and Pujols much like the genuis's feud with Rolen in last year's post-season. And with the National League leading by a run going in to the 5th inning what was Ken Griffey, Jr., the worst defensive regular in MLB still in the outfield -- a huge outfield? Did anyone see him running with iron anklets after Ichiro's I-T-P HR? Any other NL outfield holds that to a stand-up double or a triple to be generous. Beltran could have held it to a single. Guess LaRussa wants Cleveland to beat the NL WS team because without Carpenter and with Kip Wells getting the ball every 5th day the Redbirds will struggle to beat Cincinnati for last.

It's probably better just to give the links, but there's something kind of similar about these teams.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/1990.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBD/2007.shtml

And if you can figure it out, and you have one hair on your ass, you might be able to buy your kid a year in college.

Oh Jeez, we did skins, but forgot shirts. No end to Iraq or Afghan Wars. Iran toss-up. Venezuela dark-horse. So, we're are still long oil for our Nuts and are trying madly to get short dollars cheaply.

Good Luck From Forego, a poor skin-head without a dollar