PEAK OBAMA?

WE NEED SOME HELP HERE



Forego will get to the point later but first a few questions: (1) voters of any and all stripes but please try to self-identify, if you were voting in the Democratic primary or caucus in your state would you prefer Obama to Clinton, Edwards or Gore? (2) is your state densely populated? (3) does anyone know specifically any good "moderate" Democratic chat-rooms, something offiliated with -- say -- The New Republic, The DLC, etc.? (4) if you knew that Obama had strong ties to big pharma and big insurance would that make a difference? (5) If you lean right and thought that Obama was equally religious to any of the Republicans and was probably somewhere to Giuliani's right on social policy and slightly to his left on the war, has voted with Bush on the big stuff with the liberals on the small stuff what you do?



If you are thinking that this really belongs on the Kelso's Nuts site, think again. FOREGO'S NUTS is not an ideological site. It's about getting the best of it. In that sense, it probably is an idelogical site and an extreme right-wing one! Obama's 2nd financial disclosure of $37mm has shaken the gambling and futures markets. The In-Trade Democratic Nominee sub-market of Tradesports has Hillary Clinton at 43p-in-the-pound in the futures which impounds a +1.33/1 outright price in the discrete market. Obama is 38p-in-the-pound, +1.63/1. The others -- even Gore and Edwards -- are rags.



One must not make too much of this, however. In-Trade is very, very thin. Betfair -- which uses a futures/outright hybrid -- has as closest to market clearing prices: Clinton, +1.12/1; Obama +2.10/1. Betfair is a little deeper than In-Trade as to volume. A bigger place still which uses the hybrid method has Clinton +1.21/1; Obama +2.40/1, with Gore and Edwards far from rags.

All opinions welcome. Real steam preferred.

Good luck from Forego, a poor skin-head without a dollar